Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Live Blogging Super Tuesday Results

Remember to hit F5 to refresh for additional updates to the results.

Officially projected winners are in italics.

Georgia (96.8% reporting)
Romney 25.7
Santorum 19.6
*Gingrich 47.4
Paul 6.5

Massachusetts (98.5% reporting)
*Romney 72.1
Santorum 12.1
Gingrich 4.6
Paul 9.6

Virginia (100% reporting)
*Romney 59.5
Santorum --
Gingrich --
Paul 40.5

Vermont (92.7% reporting)
*Romney 39.8
Santorum 23.7
Gingrich 8.1
Paul 25.5

Ohio (99.8% reporting)
*Romney 38.0
Santorum 37.0
Gingrich 14.6
Paul 9.3

Tennessee (99.9% reporting)
Romney 28.0
*Santorum 37.3
Gingrich 24.0
Paul 9.0

Oklahoma (100% reporting)
Romney 28.0
*Santorum 33.8
Gingrich 27.5
Paul 9.6

North Dakota (100% reporting)
Romney 23.7
*Santorum 39.7
Gingrich 8.5
Paul 28.1

Idaho (100% reporting)
*Romney 61.6
Santorum 18.2
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 18.1

Alaska (95.6% reporting)
Romney 32.6
*Santorum 29.0
Gingrich 14.2
Paul 24.0


Exit polls in Oklahoma indicate a strong advantage for Santorum.

In Virginia, there was a strong push by Santorum and Gingrich voters to vote for Paul in protest against Romney (neither Rick nor Newt was able to get on the ballot in that state).

Exit polling in Ohio suggests a slight edge for Romney, but still far too close to tell.

Romney has swept every district in Virginia, taking all it's delegates.
Ron Paul has one one district and will be awarded 3 delegates from Virginia.

Ohio is being projected as the closest primary in state history.

Virginia has very low voter turnout (around 5% of registered voters).

The early voter results in Ohio are primarily coming from smaller, rural districts, where Santorum was expected to perform well. Exit polls and typical Romney demographics indicate his numbers will increases as the results of larger cities come in.

Approximately $12 million has been spent by Super PACs in Super Tuesday states.

Initial reports from the Newt Gingrich camp indicate a depressed atmosphere and low turnout for his speech and after-party.

Regardless of the results in in the popular vote in Ohio, Romney is already winning 10 of 16 districts, so he will take the majority of the delegates in the state.

Rick Perry and Jon Huntsmen got more votes in Ohio than the margin between Romney and Santorum.

In case you were wondering... yes, I am still awake and updating. I am sticking around to see if Ron Paul can win Alaska, where I hear he has locked in the caribou vote.

These numbers are still preliminary estimates and include predictions regarding non-binding caucuses and primaries, but as of about 2am Eastern Time, here is the delegate count:

Romney: 403(203 prior, 200 earned today)
Santorum: 169 (92 prior, 77 earned today)
Gingrich: 102 (33 prior, 69 earned today)
Paul: 40 (25 prior, 15 earned today)

While Alaska is still up in the air around 2:15am, it's turning out to be between Romney and Santorum, so I imagine you guys care as little about it as I do now. I'm off to bed, see you guys in the morning.


  1. I definitly do think Ron Paul is screwed by MSM, thats just a fact, deny it if you will.

    1. I'm not one for denying the truth.

      Any empirical look at Paul's coverage will reveal how much he is being conspicuously ignored by every major network.

      We'll see if he wins Alaska or North Dakota, and if the MSM can ignore that.

  2. I'm wondering if you believe Romney can wrap this up soon, or if any candidate will be able to get the GOP nod on a first ballot if Santorum and the others manage to stay in for a while and win more delegates.

    I can't take Ron Paul seriously, and Gingrich is toast, but Santorum, with more wins tonight, could stop a easy Romney roll to victory.

    1. With it looking like Santorum will win in Tennessee and Oklahoma, it's a viable option for Santorum to go all the way to the convention, I suppose, but once we see the delegate counts, I think it will become obvious that the longer this race goes on, the more damaged the Republican brand is becoming.

      It may depend more on Gingrich. If he stays in, Santorum has no chance. If Gingrich drops soon, you might notice the margins are such that Gingrich's supporters will likely give Santorum the ability to keep winning primaries and caucuses.

      We'll see if Georgia's results encourage Gingrich to stay in, or if he drops. Regardless, I think Santorum will stay in for a while, but he didn't have much of a chance to beat Romney (Romney does very well in densely populated regions, hence more delegates, so I don't think he can be defeated by Santorum).

  3. Will you be blogging the speeches?

    1. I am trying to keep track of what they've been saying. I know Gingrich spoke and compared himself to a tortoise, not a hare, and I know Santorum spoke just as he took the lead in Ohio (though I don't think he timed it that way deliberately), but I have been focusing primarily on the results and implications.

      If you want to talk about the speeches, go nuts. Feel free to do my job for me and post links to them if you have them, as well.

  4. Romney just said congrats to Ron Paul and his support of the Constitution? Secret deal for VP slot?

    1. Or a spot in his cabinet, for either Ron or his son, Rand.


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