Sunday, January 8, 2012
Interesting Analysis of Mitt "Ken Doll" Romney's Actual Nomination Prospects
...to win the nomination outright, Romney does not just have to win primaries/caucuses, he has to win MORE THAN FIFTY PERCENT of the delegates. Otherwise, he’ll end up in a brokered convention, in which anything could happen. Given that he didn’t even break 25% in Iowa, may not break 40% in New Hampshire, and is stuck around 30-35% in South Carolina, that’s may be a pretty tall order. The key numbers to look at are Romney’s vote percentages as compared to those of all the religious right candidates combined (i.e. Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, & Bachmann), since those four voting blocs will coalesce into one single anti-Romney bloc by the time Super Tuesday rolls around and the winner-take-all contests begin. And by that metric it doesn’t look good for Romney. He would have lost Iowa 25%-53%, would still win NH, but would lose South Carolina by double digits. Until he starts breaking 40% somewhere outside of NH, I’m going to remain highly skeptical of his chances at actually winning the nomination.-Mitt the Loser
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